Shifting Risks in Burkina Faso

The man who ruled Burkina Faso for 27 years fell from office a few days ago, and the contours of the transition that will follow remain unclear. The Early Warning Project’s statistical risk assessments suggest that this tumult has roughly doubled the risk of an onset of state-led mass killing in Burkina Faso for the next year or more, likely pushing it into the top 30 when those estimates are next updated in early 2015. The several area experts we consulted in the past 48 hours, however, all indicated that this worst-case scenario was highly unlikely to happen. Instead, they seemed guardedly optimistic that Burkina Faso would find its way to a competitively elected civilian government without substantial civilian bloodshed before 2016...